Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.095472 0.109380 0.124503 0.142158 0.162188 0.184195 0.210194
2026-02-01 0.070813 0.088043 0.108255 0.133667 0.164719 0.201378 0.247894
2026-02-08 0.054926 0.073686 0.097293 0.129072 0.170625 0.222988 0.293857
2026-02-15 0.042837 0.061819 0.087362 0.124056 0.175204 0.243729 0.342224
2026-02-22 0.035815 0.055390 0.083453 0.126303 0.189710 0.279628 0.416258
2026-03-01 0.028475 0.047126 0.075566 0.121641 0.193862 0.302017 0.475315
2026-03-08 0.023056 0.040727 0.069316 0.118320 0.199445 0.327342 0.542742
2026-03-15 0.018823 0.035408 0.063809 0.115192 0.204794 0.353098 0.614881
2026-03-22 0.016382 0.032686 0.062125 0.118128 0.220592 0.397948 0.724789
2026-03-29 0.013877 0.029334 0.058730 0.117446 0.229988 0.433378 0.824023
2026-04-05 0.012079 0.026978 0.056742 0.119003 0.243685 0.478322 0.946745
2026-04-12 0.010611 0.024990 0.055105 0.120942 0.258402 0.527202 1.083797
2026-04-19 0.008701 0.021690 0.050303 0.115864 0.258931 0.550258 1.177134
2026-04-26 0.007020 0.018522 0.045164 0.109123 0.254914 0.563845 1.254118
2026-05-03 0.005853 0.016310 0.041727 0.105517 0.257081 0.590582 1.362720
2026-05-10 0.004867 0.014315 0.038393 0.101514 0.257679 0.614128 1.468328
2026-05-17 0.004341 0.013416 0.037573 0.103475 0.272647 0.671848 1.658820
2026-05-24 0.003640 0.011848 0.034708 0.099701 0.273011 0.696215 1.776569
2026-05-31 0.003096 0.010599 0.032428 0.097014 0.275655 0.726412 1.912832
2026-06-07 0.002643 0.009508 0.030353 0.094472 0.278234 0.756864 2.054400
2026-06-14 0.002408 0.009059 0.030055 0.096937 0.294836 0.825151 2.301240
2026-06-21 0.002120 0.008353 0.028822 0.096400 0.302957 0.872674 2.501360
2026-06-28 0.001915 0.007881 0.028227 0.097711 0.316704 0.937336 2.756625